The Human Fertility Database
The first Human Fertility Database Symposium
The HFD Project team organized the first HFD Symposium on "Period and cohort fertility dynamics in the developed world", which was hosted by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock on 3-4 November 2011. The objectives of the Symposium were to promote research on fertility changes and their determinants - especially based on the HFD - as well as to discuss methodological challenges associated with producing and analyzing population-level fertility data. Apart from the purely scientific programme, the participants were invited to provide their feedback and suggestions on the HFD contents, methods and setup and the directions of its further development.
Papers presented at the 1st HFD symposium
- Joshua R. Goldstein, Vladimir Shkolnikov, and Tomas Sobotka "Welcome and introduction speech" presentation
Session I: DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC ASPECTS IN EXPLAINING THE RECENT FERTILITY TRENDS
- John Bongaarts and Tomas Sobotka "Demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility" paper presentation
- Olivier Thevenon and Angela Luci "The impact of economic advancement and family policies on fertility trends in OECD countries" presentation
- Mikko Myrskyla, Joshua R. Goldstein, and Yen-Hsin Alice Cheng "Cohort fertility trends reversing across the developed world"
Session II: OBSERVATIONS ON COHORT FERTILITY
- Ward Kingkade "Cohort fertility patterns of the US in international perspective: indications from the Human Fertility Database"
- Tomas Frejka "Long-Term Trends of Differential Racial Fertility in the United States" presentation
- P.C. Roger Cheng and Joshua R. Goldstein "On the possibilities of predicting cohort fertility measures from period measures: theory and empirical evidence" presentation
Session III: ANALYZING TEMPO AND QUANTUM COMPONENTS OF FERTILITY
- Robert Schoen "Analyzing the level and timing of period fertility" paper
- Joshua R. Goldstein and Thomas Cassidy "Period and cohort models of fertility tempo effects" paper presentation
Session IV: METHODS OF FERTILITY FORECASTING
- Tomas Sobotka, Krystof Zeman, Ron Lesthaeghe, and Tomas Frejka "Postponement and recuperation in cohort fertility: new analytical and projection methods and their application" presentation
- Carl Schmertmann, Emilio Zagheni, Joshua R. Goldstein, and Mikko Myrskyla "Bayesian forecasting of cohort fertility" presentation
- Peter McDonald and Rebecca Kippen "Forecasting fertility using a three-parameter model" presentation
Session V: METHODS FOR PRODUCING MORE DETAILED FERTILITY DATA AND DATA QUALITY QUESTIONS
- Ye Liu, Patrick Gerland, Thomas Spoorenberg, Vladimira Kantorova, and Kirill Andreev "Graduation methods to derive age-specific fertility rates from abridged data: a comparison of 10 methods using HFD data" extended abstract
- Laurent Toulemon "Accuracy, precision, and bias in HFD data" presentation
Session VI: HUMAN FERTILTY DATABASE: THE HISTORY AND VISIONS FOR THE FUTURE
- Tomas Sobotka "HFD: History, challenges and future plans in a nutshell" presentation
- Aiva Jasilioniene "The Human Fertility Database" presentation
Session VII: NATIONAL FERTILITY PATTERNS AND TRENDS - I
- Warren Sanderson "Cohort and period changes in the timing of the onset of fertility control in late 19th century America"
- Sergei Zakharov "Cohort and period fertility in Russia: long view of the past and short view of the future" presentation
Session VIII: NATIONAL FERTILITY PATTERNS AND TRENDS - II
- Michaela Kreyenfeld and Anja Vatterrott "Fertility development in the aftermath of German unification" presentation
- Marion Burkimsher "Visualisation of fertility trends: Switzerland as a case study" presentation
- Maria Filomena Mendes "Fertility patterns in Portugal" presentation