The Human Fertility Database


The second Human Fertility Database Symposium


The second HFD Symposium on "Population-level fertility research: State of the art" was held at the WissenschaftsForum in Berlin on 23-24 June 2016.

HFD symposium's programme

Papers presented at the 2nd HFD symposium

    WELCOME AND INTRODUCTION

  1. Andreas Edel (Population Europe; Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)
  2. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov (Director of HFD, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)
  3. Tomáš Sobotka (Director of HFD, Vienna Institute of Demography, Wittgenstein Centre)

    Opening talks I

  4. Joshua R. Goldstein (University of California at Berkeley) "Naming the precious child: the quantity-quality trade-off and aggregate fertility" presentation
  5. Mikko Myrskylä (MPIDR) and Christina Bohk-Ewald (MPIDR)"Accuracy of cohort fertility forecasts"

    Opening talks II

  6. Francesco Billari (University of Oxford) and Bent Nielsen (University of Oxford) "Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Fertility - A realistic approach"
  7. Aiva Jasilioniene on behalf of the HFD team "The Human Fertility Data Project" presentation

    Session I: FERTILITY CHANGE AND VARIATION: CROSS-NATIONAL AND CROSS-REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE

  8. Kirill Andreev (UN) "World fertility trends: empirical evidence, estimation and challenges" presentation
  9. Mathias Lerch (MPIDR) "Marriage and fertility in the Western Balkans since 1980" presentation
  10. Kryštof Zeman (VID, WIC), Éva Beaujouan (VID, WIC), Zuzanna Brzozowska (VID, WIC) and Tomáš Sobotka (VID, WIC) "Cohort fertility decline in low fertility countries: decomposition using parity progression ratios" presentation
  11. Mathias Nathan (Universidad de la República, Uruguay) and Ignacio Pardo (Universidad de la República, Uruguay) "Fertility postponement and regional patterns of dispersion in age at first birth. Evidence from HFD and HFC" presentation
  12. Christian Dudel (MPIDR) and Sebastian Klüsener (MPIDR) "Male fertility in eastern and western Germany since 1991" presentation

    Session II: DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY CHANGE AND VARIATION: GENDER ROLES, ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY, MARRIAGE

  13. Elwood Carlson (Florida State University) and Tayelor Valerio (Florida State University) "Retreat from marriage and dispersion of fertility outside marriage in the Second Demographic Transition" presentation
  14. Zuzanna Brzozowska (VID, WIC), Éva Beaujouan (VID, WIC), Kryštof Zeman (VID, WIC) "Will one replace two? Trends in parity distribution across education in Europe" presentation
  15. Ansgar Hudde (University of Bamberg) "Fertility is low when there is no societal agreement on a specific gender role model"
  16. Beata Osiewalska (Cracow University of Economics) "Childlessness and fertility by couples' educational gender (in)equality in Austria, Bulgaria and France" presentation
  17. Albert Sabater (University of St Andrews) and Elspeth Graham (University of St Andrews) "Emigration and fertility decline in Spain since the economic recession: A population-level analysis" presentation

    Session III: COHORT PERSPECTIVE ON FERTILITY AND CHILDLESSNESS

  18. Tomas Frejka (Independent consultant) "The demographic transition revisited: A cohort perspective" presentation
  19. Tomáš Sobotka (VID, WIC) "Childlessness in Europe: Reconstructing long-term trends among women born in 1900-1972" presentation
  20. Héctor Pifarré i Arolas (MPIDR) "A cohort perspective of the effect of unemployment on fertility" presentation
  21. Kathrin Morosow (Stockholm University) and Martin Kolk (Stockholm University) "How does birth order and number of siblings affect fertility? A within-family comparison using Swedish register data"

    Session IV: FROM HIGH TO LOW FERTILITY: MIGRANTS AND SPECIFIC POPULATIONS

  22. Hill Kulu (University of Liverpool), Tina Hannemann (University of Liverpool), Ariane Pailhé (INED), Karel Neels (University of Antwerp) "Why does fertility remain high among certain ethnic minority women in the UK, France and Belgium?" presentation
  23. Barbara S. Okun (Hebrew University of Jerusalem) "Cohort fertility decline and educational attainment: Muslim women in Israel" presentation
  24. Ahmad Hleihel (Israel Central Bureau of Statistics) "Understanding the recent decline on period fertility among Muslims in Israel" presentation
  25. Nasir Abu-Srihan (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev) and Jon Anson (Ben-Gurion University of the Negev) "Fertility decline and social change among the Negev Bedouin in Israel" presentation

    Session V: METHODOLOGICAL ADVANCES: ESTIMATING, ANALYSING AND FORECASTING FERTILITY

  26. Meimanat Hosseini-Chavoshi (Australian National University) and Peter McDonald (Australian National University) "Projecting births in Iran using a three-parameter model" presentation
  27. Michel Garenne (Institut de Recherche pour le Développement; Witwatersrand University; Institut Pasteur) and Robert McCaa (Minnesota Population Center) "An own-children maternal orphanhood method for estimating fertility rates from census microdata" presentation
  28. Bruno Schoumaker (Université catholique de Louvain) "Documenting male fertility in developing countries with demographic and health surveys: An assessment of three methods" presentation

    POSTER SESSION

  29. Serena Pattaro (University of Glasgow), Jon Minton (University of Glasgow) and Laura Vanderbloem (Imperial College London) "Exploring age-specific and cumulative cohort rates using Lexis surface lattice plots: An international comparison of Human Fertility Database and Human Fertility Collection data" poster
  30. Éva Berde (Corvinus University of Budapest) and Petra Németh (Corvinus University of Budapest) "Simulations to find out the influence of parity composition change of the Hungarian female population on the value of total fertility rate" poster
  31. Víctor M. García-Guerrero (El Colegio de México) and Marta Mier-y-Terán Rocha (Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México) "An assessment of the data sources on fertility in Mexico" poster
  32. Aiva Jasilioniene (MPIDR), Vlada Stankūnienė (Vytautas Magnus University, Lithuania), Domantas Jasilionis (MPIDR) "Inverse or U shaped educational gradient in fertility differentials? Evidence from census-linked data for Lithuania" poster
  33. Diana María López-Falcón (Population Europe; MPIDR) "Contextual data for policy-relevant research: The PERFAR data portal" poster
  34. Olga Grigorieva (MPIDR), Kryštof Zeman (VID, WIC), Karolin Kubisch (MPIDR), Pavel Grigoriev (MPIDR), Sigrid Gellers-Barkmann (MPIDR), Vladimir M. Shkolnikov (MPIDR), Dmitri A. Jdanov (MPIDR), Tomáš Sobotka (VID, WIC) "Human Fertility Collection: Data Resource Profile" poster